Stock Market Tariff Dilemmas

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Nvidia (NVDA)

• NVDA is a great company and used to be a great stock to own.

• Some of you may remember that in 2024, I was warning about NVDA overvaluation, momentum deceleration, potential topping, and significant correction.

• I was “attacked” by a bunch of people on X for these kinds of posts.

• The reality is that NVDA indeed topped and had about 30% “haircut” until early April. What’s next?

• The chart below shows the daily and weekly chart cycle composites.

• The daily cycle composite suggests a multi-month rebound, while the weekly cycle composite suggests a cycle trough in 2026.

• The trough in 2026 is due to the dominant 3.5Y cycle looking down.

• The question is whether the expected rebound into the summer will produce a new high.

• We will explore the options using the cycle price projections in the Premium content.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved from 3 to 19, though still in Extreme Fear.

• Both 5-day PCR and volatility dropped sharply, but still elevated.

• The elevated volatility is reflected in large intraday swings in SPX. 

BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • A type below, it should read: “Looking at them together …”

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