Stock Market Talking Turkey

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SOX – Technical Analysis

• We went bearish in July on the Semiconductor Index (SOX), which exhibited a historic outperformance to more traditional market sectors. That is typically corrected in the following market downturn.

• That led us to opine that SOX will lead the market in the following market down phase.

• Although the general market has not seen that down phase yet, SOX started to underperform NDX and other indexes significantly. Is it leading?

• We also identified a potential head-and-shoulder pattern in the SOX price pattern, but it has yet to break below the neckline to confirm it.

• Notice that SOX is below all 10D EMA, 50, 100, and 200 MAs. 100 and 200 MAs have not turned down yet, when they do, they will “define the long-term trend down, as long as SOX trends below them. 

SOX – Cycle Analysis

• SOX has been following the daily cycle composite since the summer peak.

• The cycle composite suggests that SOX may participate in the Santa Clause rally.

• The weekly chart cycle composite indicates a cycle trough, dominated by the 3-3.5-year cycle, in 2026.

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  • Professor Shilller’s cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) is among the three highest values in 100 years. 

  • I posted charts before that indicate such high valuations typically lead to multi-year weak stock market returns.

  • Yesterday, I posted a cycle analysis of CAPE indicating the next cycle trough of significance in 2030-31.

  • This rhymes with my long-term cycle analysis of the stock market with a cycle trough circa 2030.

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