Stock Market Summary

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The News Buzz

• The tech-dominated Nasdaq came under early pressure. It stayed there thanks to NVDA and a handful of related companies falling 5% or more in what looks like a technical pullback rather than a response to any specific news.

• NVDA had plenty of company in the penalty box Monday as shares of SMCI, AVGO, TSM, QCOM, and other chip and chip-related stocks plunged. 

• "Treasury yields continue to work lower in response to indications that economic growth and inflation are easing," said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Schwab. "We expect the trend to continue, barring some big surprises on the data."

• Investors face intense political events over the next few weeks, ranging from Thursday’s debate between President Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump to elections in France, the U.K., and Iran.

• Oil futures finished higher Monday, building on back-to-back weekly gains, with traders focused on developments in the Middle East and signs of energy demand as prices rebounded from an early June slump that took prices to their lowest level since early February.

AAPL Update

• AAPL likely completed 5 waves up since Jan’23 → at least 3 waves down will follow, if not more.

• AAPL slightly exceeded the highest target for the 40W cycle and was rejected by the blue trendline, after which it produced a nice bearish candle.

• Note the weekly RSI negative divergence.

• Interestingly, AAPL peaks repeat at about 11-month intervals, which rhymes with the nominal 40W cycle.

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India’s Market (INDY ETF)

• India’s market is one of the most bullish markets in the world.

• I expected that INDY had peaked or was about to peak then, but it looks like it is still working on the fifth wave from Spring ’23.

• In the last few weeks, INDY has ignored the weekly cycle composite, still pushing up while the cycles suggest down. As usual, we need to provide some tolerance around cycle estimates because there are imperfections in cycle detection, and some cycles may have changed a bit. Cycles always vary somewhat.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 24 June 2024.

What Has Been

•  Market indexes have generally met my expectations since the middle of last week (see the last 3 premium reports).

• Monday was interesting as SOX, NDX, and SPX were down, while DJI Russell 2000, Transports, Utilities, and some others were up – “Yesterday’s” laggards were today’s winners, and vice versa. Interesting dynamics. Is it a longer-term sector rotation or a one-day wonder to confuse the uninformed? I suspect the latter.

• Correspondingly, for a change, the breadth was positive on the NYSE and Nasdaq as 1933/867 and 2311/1956, respectively.  

• Asian stock markets had a mixed day, while European markets had a green day.

• As I mentioned above, the US indexes were mixed today:

  • Dow advanced 260.88 points or 0.67% to 39,411.21

  • S&P 500 declined 16.75 points or -0.31% to 5,447.87

  • Nasdaq declined 192.54 points or -1.09% to 17,496.82

  • Russell 2000 advanced 8.78 points or 0.43% to 2,030.81

• Bitcoin got crushed, falling over 6% and dipping below $60k.

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