Stock Market Summary

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The News Buzz

• Forbes: A Surprise, Game-Changing Crypto Bill Could Be About To Quietly Blow Up The Price Of Bitcoin, Ethereum And XRP.

• Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago.

• Powell says the Fed is prepared to respond if inflation falls more quickly than expected after one interest-rate cut now projected for this year.

• Powell Says Fed Viewed Upbeat CPI Data as ‘Progress.’

• Fed Officials Dial Back Rate Forecasts, Signal Just One ‘24 Cut.

• Apple leapfrogs Microsoft to reclaim the most valuable company crown.

Enhanced Swing Trading

There are multiple variations for enhanced Swing Trading. I personally establish an initial swing position in two or three steps. My two-step approach includes:

• Entering the 1^st half of normal position size at a point when the price target is reached, and cycles indicate a potential reversal.

• The 2^nd half of the position is entered after an initial 5-wave rally and a 3-wave pullback.

Once in a swing position after the trend in favor of the swing position is established, one can do swing position enhancements:

• Add to the position on the pullbacks if the larger trend is intact.

• Sell a portion of the position on overbought conditions and buy it back on oversold pullbacks. That is, trading a portion of the swing position while keeping the core of it.

  • The size of the position for short-term trading can be 1/4, 1/3, or 1/2. The choice is subjective and depends on the overall confidence in the traded instrument, technical characteristics, short-term cycles, etc.

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SOX Update

• Remember that I stated a few times that SOX appeared to be relatively overvalued to the rest of the market to a similar extent as in 2000, after which SOX suffered a big decline.

• Below is the updated chart.

• Several days ago, I showed the red trendline and the 80D cycle target (green rectangle). 

• I also said that I expected SOX to overthrow the red trendline to satisfy the target.

• This was accomplished today with a gap and go in SOX.

• Negative divergences in technical indicators are still evident.

• I expect SOX to reverse to below the red trendline in the not-too-distant future.

Market Summary

As of close on 12 June 2024.

What Has Been

• U.S. large-caps led by Nasdaq rallied on Wednesday after dovish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and an upbeat May CPI report. 

• S&P 500 advanced 45.71 points or 0.85% to 5,241.03. Nasdaq advanced 264.89 points or 1.53% to 17,608.44.

• Russell 2000 advanced 32.75 points or 1.62% to 2,057.1.

• Dow declined 35.21 points or -0.09% to 38,712.21 points to 38,712.21.

• Asian markets were mixed, while European bourses were solidly green.

• So far, indexes moved as expected, with SPX and NDX finally reaching 80D cycle targets.

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