Stock Market Shaken by Bad 20-Year Treasury Auction?

Are Rising Yields Going to Derail Stock Market Rebound?

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Today we will be covering...

  • NVDA will release its earnings on May 28. Based on the recent price action, investors and traders seem to be expecting good earnings. Today, we will examine Nvidia’s cycles. In the Pro newsletter, we will also analyze the Philadelphia Semiconductors Index.

  • Pundits say a bad response to the 20-year Treasury Auction caused a market selloff yesterday. Maybe that was just a catalyst, as DJI and small caps were already showing a weakness despite the strength in NDX.

  • Will investors pay attention to the rising bond yields in the US and Japan?

  • The chart raises some interesting questions.

Nvidia (NVDA)

  • We emphasized several times how vital NVDA and Semiconductor are to NDX and the stock market. 

  • Let us examine some pronounced NVDA cycles. In the Pro newsletter, we will examine the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

  • The daily cycle composite is dominated by the nominal 20W cycle and 1.25Y cycle.

  • The 20W cycle should peak in early June and provide some choppiness.

  • The 1.25Y cycle should peak in late October.

  • The dominant 3.5Y cycle may left-translate the peak in the daily cycle composite above.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

  • The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index dropped to 66, and the total Put/Call Ratio bounced smartly this week.

  • SPX generated a 20W cycle target of 6,457-6,765 (see the chart below). What are the chances of reaching this target? Read more below.

  • Let me provide a succinct summary of an elaborate discussion we had in Sunday’s Pro newsletter.

  • The 20W cycle upside targets were historically satisfied 73% of the time (see top left). However, this probability drops significantly when longer cycles point down in bear markets. A few longer cycles still point up, while the powerful 3.5-year cycle started its down phase in early 2025, IMO. I will show these cycles in the Pro newsletter.

  • We had a similar scenario in the 2022 bear market. After the initial drop, there was a robust rebound, and an ambitious 20W cycle target to new highs was generated. However, SPX sharply reversed, invalidating the target, and continuing to the bear market trough in late 2022.

  • Will the 2022 scenario repeat in 2025? There are good chances it will, with or without new highs. We will follow the development three times per week for any new clues about market moves in the short and intermediate term.

  • Related to the 2022 and 2025 comparison, the chart below shows a percentage-wise comparison of the two markets.

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BraVoCycles on X

  • Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

    • When the CEO of the largest US bank speaks, I listen but make decisions based on my own technical analysis.

    • Dimon also said that the probability of recession is 50%. That is a coin flip.

    • However, recessions are rare; 50% represents an increased risk.

To continue reading about Market Summary, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies or crypto, upgrade to Premium Pro. . .

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