Stock Market Shake Up

Precious Metals – Gold or Silver??

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BraVoCycles Newsletter
December 10, 2024

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Today they call gold and silver “old peoples’ crypto.” But is it so?

Investors may be drawn to precious metals like gold and silver for several reasons:   

1. Hedge Against Inflation:

  • Historical Performance: Historically, precious metals have held their value or even increased in value during periods of high inflation.   

  • Tangible Asset: Unlike fiat currencies, which can be devalued by inflation, precious metals are tangible assets that maintain their value.   

2. Portfolio Diversification:

  • Low Correlation: Precious metals often have a low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds. This means their value may not move in the same direction as other investments, potentially reducing overall portfolio risk.   

  • Risk Management: Adding precious metals to a portfolio can help spread risk across different asset classes.   

3. Safe Haven Asset:

  • Economic Uncertainty: During times of economic uncertainty, political instability, or market volatility, investors may turn to precious metals as a safe haven.   

  • Perceived Stability: Gold, in particular, is often seen as a stable store of value, while silver also has industrial uses.  

4. Potential for Long-Term Growth:

  • Industrial Demand: Both gold and silver have industrial uses, and increasing demand from industries like technology and manufacturing can drive prices higher.   

  • Investment Demand: Investor demand for precious metals can also influence prices.   

Important Considerations:

  • Volatility: While precious metals can be a valuable addition to a portfolio, they can also be volatile, with prices fluctuating significantly.   

  • Storage Costs: Physical precious metals require secure storage, which can incur costs.   

  • Liquidity: While gold and silver are generally considered liquid assets, selling them may not always be as straightforward as selling stocks or bonds. However, one can trade gold futures (GC) and silver futures (SI), precious metals stocks or ETFs.

Investing in Precious Metals:

  • Physical Metals: Buying physical gold or silver bars or coins allows for direct ownership.   

  • Gold and Silver ETFs: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) track the price of precious metals, offering a convenient way to invest.  A popular gold ETF is GLD, but there are others. A popular silver ETF is SLV. 

  • Mining Stocks: Investing in companies that mine gold and/or silver can provide exposure to the metals industry. For example, popular mining companies ETFS are GDX and GDXJ.

It's essential to conduct thorough research and consider your individual financial goals and risk tolerance before investing in precious metals. Consulting with a financial advisor can help you make informed decisions.   

Today we will analyze the precious metals prices and outlook using cycles and Elliott Wave Theory. The latter will be presented in the Pro section.

Gold Futures Price Outlook

  • The cycle composite below is obtained from the gold futures daily chart.

  • The gold price outlook remains the same as when we analyzed it several weeks ago.

  • With or without some additional bounce in gold price, a cycle trough in gold futures is expected in Q1’25.

  • That cycle trough may present a nice buying opportunity.

Silver Futures Price Outlook

  • The cycle composite below is obtained from the silver futures daily chart.

  • The silver price outlook is for generally lower prices into Mar’25 although the present bounce may continue for a few more weeks.

Read older newsletters featuring Precious Metals:

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    • Yesterday I posted a Bitcoin sentiment indicator from Sentix.

    • It signifies excessive greed and is a red flag for Bitcoin and crypto investors.

  • “Long-term” holders, or perhaps you can call them “smart money” is selling BTC.

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Look out for the next newsletter. We will review Gold stock EFTs.

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