Stock Market’s Relentless Rebound Is Getting Extended

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Opportunity in Brazilian Stock Market?

• Brazilian stock market ETF, EWZ, is shown below.

• EWZ had a crash in 2008, dropping from 102 to 26.

• With all its ups and downs, it has been a sideways move for 17 years until now, and EWZ is at about the same level as at the 2008 low.

• It is still below the down-sloping 50M and 100M MAs and poked above the 10M EMA.

• The chart below shows a potentially very bullish Elliott Wave count.

• Is this count correct? 

• It is still speculative. It will be invalidated below 17.

• To confirm the speculated uptrend, we would like EZ to break above the gray trendline resistance and 50M and 100M MAs, say noticeably above the 35 level.

• EWZ has a 40W cycle price target of about 30+/-, as shown below.

• If it reaches this target, EWZ will likely generate a target well above 35, probably in the 37-38 range.

• In the Pro newsletter content, we will analyze cycles to estimate potential EWZ turning points in time.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index improved nicely. Although not required, I would like to see it real Extreme Greed before the next major swing down.

• In last weekend’s newsletter, I posted about a daily DeMark sell signal for RTY and 4H sell signals for ES, NQ, and YM.

• Tom DeMark's Sequential Signals (9 and 13) is a technical analysis tool designed to identify potential trend exhaustion and price reversals in financial markets. It aims to pinpoint when a trend is losing momentum, offering traders opportunities to anticipate reversals.

• The charts below show daily and weekly SPX charts, as of last Friday, with DeMark reversal signals marked by red circles.

• The yellow arrows signify DeMark sequential-9 signals.

• The red arrows signify DeMark sequential-13 signals.

• They do not catch all reversals but when they are triggered one should pay attention.

• Sometimes they could be early, and that may be the case now.

• Occasionally, the signals fail, but not often.

• They should be used in conjunction with other technical tools, cycles, Elliott Waves, or other technical tools such as RSI, MACD, oscillators, etc.

• Returning to the charts below, one can notice that we have conflicting De Mark signals: 1. Weekly Buy, and 2. Daily Sell.

• How one should interpret them?

• Long story short, the weekly signal suggests an uptrend for many weeks, while allowing for a correction lasting multiple days.

• This is similar how I have been explaining the market prospects in the Pro newsletter since late March and early April.

BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

• Which segment is most relevant for contrarian sentiment arguments?

• Is “retail” now “Smart Money.”

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