Stock Market Rug Pull

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VAL[U]E Investing – VALE

VALE Then

• On 27 June, I posted the VALE chart below after the break of the bearish triangle B.

• I also flagged the ideal target of about $4, which corresponds to C=A and 88.7% retrace of wave (A).

VALE Now

• Does VALE must go to the ideal target of $4?

• No, it does not. Other acceptable targets are 61.8% and 78.6% red retrace fibs of (A).

• 61.8% is already broken, 78.5% is interesting as it coincides with (C) equal to Fibonacci 0.786 of (A), support (orange line) from B of (A)! 

• However, the weekly trend is still down: 1. Inside pink & black channels, and 2. Below down-trending 10W EMA, 50W, 100W and 200W MAs.

• Technical indicators are not showing a convincing positive divergence.

• Once VALE bottoms in (B), it should target 25 or higher in wave (C). The exact target is TBD.

• The chart above shows two plausible Elliott Wave (EW) counts, blue and black.

• The blue count is less likely, given the abovementioned technical factors.

• The daily cycle composite (upper window) comprising four dominant cycles detected on the daily chart suggests a cycle bottom in mid-Feb.

• The daily cycle composite is dominated by the 40-week cycle (lower window) with an expected trough at the end of Feb.

• The red double arrows signify that one shall always provide for a tolerance of 10-15% of the length of the dominant cycle. The reasons are: 1. Not all shorter and longer cycles are captured, 2. Cycles are dynamic in that their attributes vary over time, and 3. There is some estimation/measurement error.

• The pending cycle trough may not correspond to the final low.

• For example, if it is the low of (B), the next peak and trough may correspond to waves ((i)) and ((ii)) of wave (C) up.

• Alternatively, the next peak and trough may correspond to waves ((iv)) and ((v)) of C of (B) in the black EW count.

• Our methodology in Market Twists & Turns incorporates multiple methods to accurately identify turning points: technical analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, cycles turning points, and cycle price projections.

• WE will look at VALE cycle price projections in the Premium content.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The Fear & Greed Index is hovering just above the fear range. It is not providing much insight currently.

• Liquidity provided by the FED is still in a downtrend, technically speaking.

• There is an interesting correlation between S&P 500 and Liquidity with a 25-day offset. 

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