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Market Summary
There was a CPI shake-up today after a flat day on Monday (the calm before the storm, as we suggested on Monday). There was a shake-up yesterday too. I wonder if there was a CPI leak?!? We get these things often. I wonder why no one is investigating these potential leaks.
The wave structure is murky, allowing for both up- and down-movement from here. But looking at multiple things, I suspect a short-term bounce is due, with or without a slightly lower first. Thus, I would still look for some more up-action before a reversal.
Repeat from before:
The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.
My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.
There was a catch-down in the market today.
Market data as of close on 10 Apr. 2024.
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Chart of the Week
The “Sick Man of Europe,” Germany ETF (EWG) finally turned over after amazing strength in a recession? Significant down potential. We shall see.
Chart of the Day
NVDA is behaving and trending underneath the 10D EMA. But bouncing off the pink support now.
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Interest Rates Continued
While CPI inflation is at 3.5%, inflation is much higher in many basic necessities:
1. Car Insurance Inflation: 22.2%
2. Transportation Inflation: 10.7%
3. Car Repair Inflation: 8.2%
4. Hospital Services Inflation: 7.5%
5. Homeowner Inflation: 5.9%
6. Rent Inflation: 5.7%
7. Electricity Inflation: 5.0%
8. Food Away From Home Inflation: 4.2%
10Y yield reacted accordingly. But is it going to last?
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