Stock Market Outlook

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Table of Contents

• Market Summary

• Tracking SOX (Semiconductors)

  • Technical Analysis

  • Liquidity

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Forex

• Bonds

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Market Summary

The market is short-term oversold but may need to move slightly lower before a bounce. My tea leaves suggest that the market can bounce soon and from not much lower levels. The rally/bounce could last up to a couple of weeks, and we will re-evaluate after assessing the strength of the bounce.

Some indexes may still attempt a new high. Shorter cycles allow for that, while MT cycles have already turned down, and LT cycles are in the process of doing so. But, with or without a new high, everything points down in the intermediate term.

Repeat from before:

Remember that I mentioned several times in the last 2-3 months that in an expected topping formation one should raise cash by selling the rips. Those who followed this strategy did well and got the prices above the present levels. This game scenario is still appropriate.

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 17 Apr. 2024.

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Tracking SOX (Semiconductors)

I have been tracking $SOX.X (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index), which includes NVDA and some other AI chip stocks.

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Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

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