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Market Summary
Ā· Indexes continued a grind higher but started to consolidate in the afternoon.
Ā· What is next?
SPX, NDX and DJI may have two more sequences of 4-5s. That is, at a micro level, down-up-down-up before completing the EW wave structure. This rhymes with the twists and turns I mentioned before.
Then I expect a bigger correction to commence by mid-June or so.
It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December and especially since February-March š¤
My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. šļø
Market data as of close on 16 May 2024.
I'm continuing with Magnificent 7. They have led the market boom and overvaluation since Octā23 and before. They are also crucial for NDX and the overall market. Getting insight into how they might perform next year will be indicative of the stock market's performance as well.
GOOG Cycles
Ā· The cycle composite from the weekly chart for GOOG includes 2, 2.85, 3.7, and 5.8Y cycles.
Ā· It shows a notable cycle low in late 2026, similar to several other indexes and stocks that I looked at.
Ā· The daily cycle composite suggests that GOOG may top soon, rhyming with the āSell in May, and Go Awayā pattern.
NQ Technical & Cycle Analysis
Ā· The chart below shows a chart of NDX futures, NQ.
Ā· NQ is approaching the C&H target and now confirmed 80D cycle.
Ā· NQ broke above down-slopping Keltner channel. Staying above the Keltner channel too long is normally not sustainable.
Ā· The chart also shows a 1Y cycle in NQ. We may call it the āSell in May, and Go Awayā cycle.
Ā· This cycle should be rolling over soon.
To have maximum benefit from the newsletter, it is essential to follow me on X, where I often post important and timely charts between newsletters.
Ā· I posted a Hurst cycles analysis of SPX yesterday on X.
My #SPX Hurst cycle analysis provides an 80D cycle target (red line) somewhere bellow 5,500 which rhymes with the upper range of the two previosly presented $SPX cycle targets.
- The analysis suggests that estimated peaks of the 80D, 20W and 40W cycles converge at about May-Juneā¦ x.com/i/web/status/1ā¦ā BraVoCycles Newsletter (@BraVoCycles)
12:22 AM ā¢ May 16, 2024
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Cycle Analysis of NDX/NQ
I showed earlier the 80D cycle target for NQ, which is not far away.
NQ already satisfied. . .
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