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Market Summary
We got the expected bounce! Now what?
· Indexes bounced in likely 4-th waves from last week's low, topped overnight, then down, up, down. They acted like they were confused all day.
· Then, after 4 pm EST, index futures dropped sharply on META’s earnings release.
· How timely was yesterday's META—Another Domino Falling blog? Clairvoyant! I have been negative about Magnificent 7 Mania for weeks and have warned readers about it.
· Now what?
· Based on my tea leaves (as elaborated in the premium content), I think the market may bounce somewhat tomorrow and then fall into the end of April.
· After that, I expect a bounce into late June, and another swing down into late October.
Market data as of close on 24 Apr. 2024.
TSLA - Cycles
· TSLA reached the minimum requirements for the 18-month cycle presented before.
· Although it is “allowed” to go down more within the target range, one should be on alert for a possible reversal now.
· Has it bottomed? We will explore more.
TSLA - Technical Analysis
· TSLA spiked below the downtrend lines (DTLs) of gray and blue wedges and reversed sharply (earnings release).
· This is a sign of a reversal, especially in conjunction with strong positive divergences of technical indicators on the daily chart below. Plus, it satisfied the cycle target mentioned above.
· An additional convincing indication of a longer-term reversal would be if the price “jumps” over the upper trend lines (UTLs) of the wedges.
Buzz On the Street
· Biden proposes a huge increase in capital gains to 42%.
· If it passes, it will be negative for US stocks. Investors will take gains before the year this becomes effective.
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Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes
There is no noticeable change in cycle compositions. The charts below show daily cycle composites for SPX futures (ES) and SPX cash. . .
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