Stock Market Outlook

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·         It would be ideal that when indexes reach existing targets, about 2-3+/-% higher, CNN’s Fear & Greed gets into the extreme greed territory.

·         SPX, NDX, and DJI are not far from a top of significance, neither in time (give it a week or tow) nor price.

·         Then I expect a bigger correction to commence by mid-June or so.

It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December, especially since February-March.🤑 

·         Buying the dips (BTDs) becomes more risky as indexes approach targets.

·         My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. 👇️ 

Market data as of close on 23 May 2024.

Chinese Dragon Ready to Fly?

Is the “Chinese Dragon” ready to fly? I think not yet. But let’s examine the largest China ETF, KWEB.

· Since Jan-Feb lows, KWEB made three ways up, potentially corrective, unless five waves up develop.

· Since the daily cycle composite now suggests down, the recent peak was likely a B wave with a C wave target below Jan-Feb lows in mid-summer.

· The big question is whether KWEB bottomed in 2022. From the daily chart the answer is affirmative.

· However, on the weekly chart, the strongly dominant 3.5Y cycle is about to roll over and will not trough until late 2025.

· That can produce a new low for KWEB, but a new low or not, that time frame will be a good opportunity to jump on the KWEB train.

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Let’s check time cycles for SPX. We have been talking about a complex top for a while due to intermediate-term cycles looking up and longer-term cycles looking down. . .

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