Stock Market Outlook

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· Despite a sideways to down market the last two days, CNN’s Fear & Greed keeps getting deeper into the greed territory. This is in line with expectations for indexes pushing still higher.

· It would be ideal that when indexes reach existing targets, about 2+/-% higher, CNN’s Fear & Greed gets into the extreme greed territory.

· Ideally, SPX, NDX, and DJI should use an up-down-up micro sequence (5-4-5) to complete the EW structure.

· Then I expect a bigger correction to commence by mid-June or so.

· It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December, especially since February-March. 🤑 

· My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. 👇️ 

Market data as of close on 17 May 2024.

I'm continuing with Magnificent 7. They have led the market boom and overvaluation since Oct’23 and before. They are also crucial for NDX and the overall market. Getting insight into how they might perform next year will be indicative of the stock market's performance as well.

AMZN Cycles

· Despite the 40W cycle rolling over, AMZN shows a cycle strength until October.

· It is one of Magnificent 7, Along with TSLA, which shows counter US market trend, cycle-wise.

· It is hard to believe that AMZN will make much progress once the general market starts rolling over, but it may exhibit relative strength.

Gold vs S&P 500

· The Gold/S&P500 ratio is at a historically low level.

· Does that mean Gold is undervalued or S&P500 (SPX) overvalued?

· I would venture to choose the latter.

· As I posted before, a selling opportunity in SPX may be within a few weeks.

· I am tracking gold in the Premium Newsletter and will try to catch the next buying/adding opportunity.

Commodities vs S&P500

• Another inter-market indication that the S&P500 may be overvalued.

• We have posted different technical and inter-market indications in the past that the US market is overvalued on an intermediate and long-term basis.

• I identified several multi-year buying opportunities in key commodities in our Premium Newsletter, starting with gold several months ago.

Let us check RTY and YM cycles. . .

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