Stock Market Outlook

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Market Summary

· The battle between short-term and intermediate-term cycles continues. It looks like the short-term cycle could not produce more than a sideways consolidation, so far.

· What is next?

·         SPX NDX and DJI achieved new highs on Wednesday, and still have higher targets. SPX has a target of about 3% +/- higher. It does not mean it will be achieved in a straight line. As I mentioned last week, we may see twists and turns until the first half of June.

·         Then I expect a bigger correction to commence..

·         It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December and especially since Feb-March. 🤑 

My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. 👇️ 

Market data as of close on 15 May 2024.

Is the market in a blowoff top phase?!

I'm continuing with Magnificent 7. They have led the market boom and overvaluation since Oct’23 and before. They are also crucial for NDX and the overall market. Getting insight into how they might perform next year will be indicative of the stock market's performance as well.

MSFT Cycles

· The three longer and dominant cycles on the weekly chart suggest a down for “Softy” in the next 10-12 months.

· The cycles from the daily chart suggest that MSFT can continue to rally toward mid-June. A new high is very likely.

SPX Technical Analysis

· The black trend line appeared to be significant in March. SPX broke over it and reversed quickly. SPX just poked above it again and can dance around it for a few more weeks, but I expect SPX to reverse again.

· SPX hit the Keltner channel's upper boundary, indicating an overbought condition that can persist for several days but eventually call for a reversal.

· SPX is approaching the gray rectangle target. This target is determined by using a focal point of 5 centered moving averages (CMAs). We explained this method in lesson 1 a few months ago.

 To have maximum benefit from the newsletter, it is essential to follow me on X,  where I often post important and timely charts between newsletters.

I posted a DJI price target yesterday on X.

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Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

· SPX has an 80D cycle target of 5435-5469.6, which is about 3% +/- higher. . .

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