Stock Market Outlook

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·         The market may continue lower early next week. But there is a “battle” between short-term and intermediate-term cycles until the end of the month. The former indicate down, while the latter indicate up. This brings a degree of ambiguity in the market forecast.

·         Shorter cycles up to 40D have a down bias, while the intermediate-term cycles, such as 80D and 20W, have an up bias into June. These shorter cycles could cause a deep pullback, but they could also yield a sideways consolidation.

·         Cycle projections hint at higher levels, even new highs. We can assign probability 0.7 to this aspect.

·         Correspondingly, we may still see twists and turns until June before a bigger correction commences.

·         It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December and especially since Feb-March. 🤑 

My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. 👇️ 

Market data as of close on 10 May 2024.

Continuing with Magnificent 7.

TSLA Cycles

· You may recall from my previous posts that TSLA reached its 18M cycle price target a few weeks ago and was due to reverse direction.

· The longer-term cycles from the weekly chart indicate a couple of good years for TSLA, with non-withstanding corrections along the way.

· The longest cycles detected from the weekly chart are 73W and 29W cycles. Their cycle composite is shown in the chart below. Semicircles at the bottom designate approximately 73W cycles.

· Bottom line: TSLA stock should be generally bullish toward 2028; the next major cycle trough should be in 2030. Of course, there will be additional wiggles if we would include shorter cycles.  

· More from me about TSLA on Monday.

Sunspot Activity vs Stock Market

· Cycles in nature and financial markets are often related to planetary and solar cycles. One of the well-known high-correlation relationships is between sunspot cycle activity and the stock markets.

· Stock markets usually trough and peak before or coincidentally with troughs and peaks in the approximately 11Y cycle in solar activity.

· The chart below shows that Sunspot cycle 25 is expected to peak in early 2026 and decline into mid 1930s.

· Longer-term stock market cycles indicate a cycle peak in late 2025 or early 2026, and a major cycle trough in early 2030s.

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·         The chart below shows the cycle composite of 103W, 119W and 3.5Y cycles (3.5Y cycle is still looking up) detected from the weekly NDX chart.

The long-term picture is generally. . .

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