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Market Summary
· The financial markets were schizophrenic today: Equities were down during RTHs (but SPX & NDX are green in ATHs), metals are up, the dollar is down, oil is up, the yen is down, and crypto is up. Things are all over the place today. . .
· The bounce from the gap down was strong, especially in view of the ATH pop in NDX and SPX. I suppose the ATH pop in NDX is due to good earnings releases from the chip sector and GOOG. GOOG was up 14% when I checked!!! But two days ago, TSLA had a negative release and was up 10%. Yesterday, META had a positive release and was down 10%! Go figure! The market noise is pronounced.
· The bounce in progress does not look complete. ES (SPX futures) could extend as high as 5,220-5,260.
Gif by streamonmax on Giphy
Market data as of close on 25 Apr. 2024.
Magnificent 7 – AMZN Cycles
· The Magnificent 7 stocks have been relentlessly pressing up the last several months and masking the internal market weakness.
· Once they turn dow, the market may unveil its real nature.
· The dominant 3.5-4Y cycle in AMZN is still pointing up.
· But we need to examine other cycles also.
· The chart below shows the weekly cycle composite for AMZN when several prominent cycles are included.
· The cycle composite suggests a correction into summer and strength into the end of the year.
· Just like TSLA, AMZN appears to be out of sync with the general market and many other stocks. I prefer to play with stocks that are in synch with the market.
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Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes
There has been no change in the SPX cycle composite since yesterday. The 40D and 80D cycles are expected to turn up in late April to early May to facilitate a bounce, along with. . .
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