Stock Market Outlook

Waiting for FED & CPI

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Market Summary

· Short-term cycles still provide some down bias! Not much else has changed since the last report.

· What is next?

· SPX and DJI were slightly red and NDX slightly green on Monday. Mostly a non-event day.

· But some fireworks/turbulence may occur on Tuesday as several FED governors will speak, including Chair Jerome Powell. Then, a CPI report on Wednesday. So there could be some whipsaws for short-term traders.

· There is a “battle” between short-term and intermediate-term cycles until the end of the month. The former indicate down, while the latter indicate up. This brings a degree of ambiguity in the market forecast. My best guess is some down bias toward the end of May followed by a strength in early June, then down.

· Correspondingly, we may still see twists and turns until June before a bigger correction commences.

· It is still a good strategy to sell the rips (RIPs), i.e., raise cash, gradually, as we have been suggesting since December and especially since Feb-March. 🤑 

· My intermediate- and long-term views have not changed. They are bearish. 👇️ 

Market data as of 8 pm on 13 May 2024.

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Powel and CPI can cause some whipsaws or turbulence on Tuesday and Wednesday!

And now, continuing with Magnificent 7.

AAPL Cycles

· AAPL started to drop in Dec’23, well before the market did. The bounce in progress is likely almost complete as an A of an AB-C corrective retrace from the April low.

· The cycle composite from the daily chart below suggests B into and of May then C up into July.

· After the mid-summer bounce AAPL should continue its downfall into early 2025.

· Then a bigger move up is possible in 2025 but I will re-evaluate at some appropriate time.

 For your benefit, follow me on X (formerly Twitter), where I often post important and timely charts between newsletters.

On Sunday I posted this analysis of the Cup & Handle (C&H) pattern target that coincides with a preliminary cycle target to a new high for NDX.

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Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

· As stated last week, the short-term cycle may provide some down pressure toward late May. . .

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