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Market Summary
The US market was flat as a pancake today. Again, there is not much new information. Is it the calm before the storm? Would PMI on Wednesday and CPI on Friday cause some storms?
I would still look for some more up-action before a reversal.
Repeat from before:
The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.
My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.
Gif by travisband on Giphy
Market data as of close on 8 Apr. 2024.
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Chart of the Week
Would you rather sell DJI or buy inverted DJI?
Buy or Sell? |
Chart of the Day
Some are posting this blue running triangle (running triangles are possible in strongly trending stocks but have a relatively low probability), suggesting up for SMCI. But orange Head & Shoulders (H&S) in SMCI is another possibility. Which one do you think will play out?
The dominant SMCI cycle (8-9 months) thinks the orange will win.
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Confusion About Interest Rates & Related?
I think I posted a similar chart before but this one looks fancier. The gap should close. How? Maybe by rates going down and gold also consolidating to down?
High rates and high debt are bad for the consumer/economy.
And US Treasury issuance likely has something to do with higher rates.
Jamie Dimon, a famous banking CEO, thinks the rates will continue to go up to about 8%.
But I am not sure that Jamie Dimon is right in the medium term. My analysis presented a few weeks ago in the premium content suggests that interest rates should pull back in the next couple of years.
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