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Stock Market Presidential Cycle

• 2025, the post-election year, is traditionally weak according to the Presidential Cycle – The Dow’s median return in post-election years is -2.2%.

• According to the Presidential cycle, in the election years the Dow's historic median return is 6.3%. Thus, 2028 should be positive, and 2024 was stellar.

• The most bullish 14 months of the Presidential Cycle are from 30 September of pre-election years to 31 December of election years, during which period the Dow gains on average 27.1%. In this cycle, this corresponds to Q4’27 and 2028.

• Of course, these are “big picture” average results, and returns may deviate from the average in particular cycles.

• Incidentally, our long-term cycle projections, posted a few times in the newsletter, rhyme well with market returns for this coming cycle, i.e., weak 2025 and strong 2028.

• In the premium newsletter, we updated price projections and turning points in time daily and weekly without relying on statistical averages, which may or may not be accurate for any specific year or Presidential Cycle. 

Volatility – VIX ETF

• The chart below shows a cycle price projection chart for VIX ETF, VXX. 

• Please refer to the educational material on the website for a tutorial on interpreting cycle price projection charts. This is one of the methods that we often employ in our analysis, especially in the premium newsletter.

• This is a follow-up to my real-time VXX 40D cycle target post on X on Tuesday, which was reposted in the newsletter yesterday.

• VXX, in short order, reached the 40D and then 80D cycle target, as shown below.

• Dropping deeper into the target box (red rectangle) and below the light blue FLD band will generate a target of about 35-35.7.

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• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.  

    • Yesterday, I posted an interesting observation.

    • Crude oil is inversely correlated with TLT and positively correlated with long bond yields.

    • This is worth exploring more.

To continue reading about Market Summary, US Markets, Elliot Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies or crypto, upgrade to Premium Pro. . .

Look for Sunday’s newsletter; we will have a crypto update.

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