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Stock Market Lead By a Few Mega-Caps
Is “As Apple Goes, the Market Goes” in Play Again?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
August 12, 2025
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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine SPX Hurst cycles analysis.
S&P 500 – A Long-Term View
SPX long-term chart is bearish longer-term.
SPX is hitting a long-term trendline resistance with negative divergences in RSI and MFI.
Notice also the bigger and the smaller wedge.
However, this does not mean that the top is in.
Although SPX is due for a pullback, we have some indications that it can still push on the order of 10% higher. TBD.
One scenario is a pullback and then another push to tag the trendline resistance.
I posted before some valuation metrics indicating that SPX is among the most overvalued in the last 100 years.
The Buffet Indicator reached a historic record.
The Price/Sales Ratio reached the highest value ever.
All the evidence we have been posting paints a dangerous market.
However, the market can always get more overvalued in the short-term.
While the market breadth is deteriorating, it is still pushing higher due to the strength of several mega-caps (see my X posts below).
When these mega-caps start correcting, the market can drop sharply, just like in March-April of this year.
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research in it and which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
It is essential to understand that the stock market is narrowing and that mega-caps, including Magnificent 7, are driving the market.
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