Stock Market – Last Gasps

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Nvidia Stock Price Forecast

• I repeatedly mentioned how vital NVDA is for the Semiconductor Index SOX, Nasdaq 100, and the overall stock market.

• The cycle composite of the dominant 3.4-year and 7-year cycles is shown in the figure.

• The cycle composite suggests a multi-year trend change in Nvidia stock price.

• But other cycles also affect when the price turning point may occur.

• For a detailed analysis of Nvida’s stock price forecast, check out our latest Nvidia blog at the link below.

Nvidia Technical Analysis and Forecast Blog

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Lesson – Interaction of multiple cycles

• I often post a single cycle or cycle composite comprising a few dominant cycles. Such charts aim to convey a big-picture estimate of turning points in price trends.

• The price behavior is affected by many cycles, from the very short to the very long ones, which cannot all be detected from a chart of a given time scale.

• In addition, long-term fundamental trends may also affect the price pattern behavior.

• The figure below shows an idealistic mathematical representation of four cycles of different lengths and a fundamental trend (straight line).

• One can see that the dominant cycle captures the big-picture trends but that shorter cycles also affect actual price highs and lows.

• Even when multiple cycles are used in the cycle composite plot, one should allow for a tolerance around estimated turning points. There are various reasons for that.

• Cycles vary over time according to the principle of variation. The cycle period estimated over several cycles may be somewhat different from when the cycle composite is calculated.

• There are unavoidable estimation errors in estimating cycle periods, phases, and amplitudes. Even with relatively small estimation errors, the actual cycle composite may differ slightly from the calculated/estimated one.

• Fundament factors and news releases can also cause temporary changes in cycle amplitudes and periods. It may take some time for the cycles to settle back to their stable periods.

• For the above reasons, one should use the cycle composite as an approximate guide for turning points, not as a signal/trigger for buy and sell decisions.

• For more accurate estimates of price highs and lows, one should supplement cycle turning points analysis with 1) technical analysis, 2) FLD-based cycle price projections, 3) Elliott Wave counts, and 4) Fibonacci levels.

• We regularly employ all these methods jointly in Market Twists & Turns Basic and Pro newsletters.

Find more educational resource and lessons, here.

Check out this #FREE #newsletter. Just click the link below.

Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • I posted many informative charts on X last week.

  • The chart showing the percentages of bulls and bears represents present investors’ sentiment toward stocks. From a contrarian point of view, the bull vs. bears spread raises a yellow or red flag.

  • I also noticed that some perma-bears have given up and are now seeking higher stock market prices. Will we get a blow-off stock market top to extinguish the remaining bears?

• I also posted a stock market crash expectations chart below.

• Could we expect a stock market crash after all bears have been extinguished?

To continue reading about Market Summary, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies or crypto, upgrade to Premium Pro. . .

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