Stock Market is Recovering from Oversold

But is a Breather Around the Corner?

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  • Today, we will look into some aspects of SPX, including cycles and technical patterns.

  • I noticed the comment below from Stanley Druckenmiller.

  • However, the economy does not always go “hand in glove” with the stock market in the short- to intermediate-term.

  • Remember that the first year of the Presidential Cycle is generally negative for stock returns.

SPX/ES 40D cycle

  • Can you recognize the Nominal 40-day cycle in peaks (red) and troughs (green) in the ES price chart?

  • Of course, turning points are not driven only by this cycle but also by shorter and longer cycles.

  • However, this chart gives you an idea of how to visually identify the dominant cycles. 

Sentiment & Technical Indicators

  • The Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear region.

  • More fuel for stock gains? 

  • Be aware of bear/bull traps.

  • A couple of weeks ago, many pointed to the bearish Head & Shoulders pattern below.

  • However, although the SPX poked below the H&S neckline on an intraday basis, it never closed below it for confirmation.

  • After the bear trap, it had a strong bullish engulfing reversal, which we anticipated using cycles and “green shoots” from technical analysis.

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