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Indian Stock Market Then
On 9 October 2024, we warned about a pending wave 2 correction in the Indian stock market ETF, INDY. (Read it in full here Pause/Consolidation Over? )
Indian Stock Market Now
Fast-forward 3+ months, we can verify that INDY corrected and may be getting ready for a multi-week bounce, say into late March or early April.
The cycle trough estimated in early October was a good guidance.
However, notice how the details, not the bigger picture, have changed in 3 months. This is due to ever-varying cycle amplitudes, periods, and phases due to the Hurst principle of variability. Granted, I may have also used a different subset of cycles that is considered reliable, which can also somewhat change the cycle composite's shape.
But the lesson is not to extrapolate the cycle composite too far into the future and to update cycle estimates regularly.
The main question is whether the bounce is the start of wave 3 of (3), which would be very bullish, or just a bounce in the still evolving wave 2, i.e. the bounce will be wave ((b)) of 2, which will be followed by wave ((c)) of 2 for a deeper wave 2 correction?
If the rebound looks impulsive, it will be likely the former. If it looks corrective, i.e. in overlapping three-wave moves, it will likely be the latter.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
The strong market day and almost a collapse in VIX barely moved the needle in the Fear & Greed Index. I wonder why there is no more improvement.
The McClellan Volume Summation Index, one of several indicators alerting us to the reversal, is improving albeit slowly.
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