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Stock Market Gaps & Craps
Tariff Talk Still Moves the Market in the Short-Term
BraVoCycles Newsletter
April 24, 2025
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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will revisit the Indian stock market, which is very bullish in the long term.
Capitulation on Powell’s firing and China tariffs caused a strong rally, but it fizzled quickly after a gap and initial morning strength, presumably due to some additional comments by Bessent.
That gap & crap produced a bearish shooting star candlestick, but it may be bearish only in the short-term.
Indian Stock Market - INDY
As expected, INDY (Indian stock market ETF) bounced strongly off 200W MA according to the preferred red Elliott Wave count.
The bounce is corrective in three waves, so far, unless it morphs into something bullish like a leading diagonal for wave circle-i of 3.
The 18M cycle target also favors the red count.
Black ovals depict potential technical targets for red circle-b.
Traders and investors not invested in this market would like to ride the powerful 3 of (3) when it starts.
The daily chart reveals potential negative divergences in RSI and MACD, but not yet confirmed by reversals.
For a cycle analysis, please refer to the Pro content.
Sentiment & Technical Analysis
The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index finally got out of Extreme Fear. A positive sign for a continued rebound.
As predicted on Sunday, SPX and NDX dipped lower and reversed.
Yesterday, SPX gapped over the 10D EMA and blue trendline resistance. Good signs for a short-term trend change confirmation.
SPX still must contend with the black trendline resistance.
The NYSE McClellan Summation index curled up and with another 1-2 days up it may cross its 10D EMA and issue a “trade signal.”
Despite the huge gap and early strength, the daily candle is not bullish. It is called “Shooting Star” and is considered bearish.
It is reasonable to expect SPX to close the gap at least, or dip slightly lower before continuing up.
It may find support at the declining blue trendline.
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