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Stock Market “Gap & Go” on US-China Trade “Framework”
Deal or No Deal?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
October 28, 2025
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Today we will be covering...
With the pending FED’s rate decision on Wednesday, today, we will examine long-term bonds, specifically TLT (20-year bonds ETF) and 10-year yields index TNX.
The “Gap & Go” rally on Monday was seemingly a response to the cooling off of tariff tensions over the weekend. But the stock market was already destined to keep rising for a bit longer.
Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday – Will we get a rate cut, and by how much?
Fed Chair Powell Press Conference – Wednesday – Jerome Powell speaks. The market listens.
The previous several “tariff deals” with China failed. Will this one stick? I doubt.
President Trump Meets President Xi – Thursday – Will we see a trade deal get inked?
TLT and TNX Cycles
The FED is widely expected to cut rates on Wednesday.
Everyone’s betting on rate cuts, yields down, easy money, and an endless bull run.
But my bond cycles are flashing a warning: bond prices could fall, yields might spike, and stocks aren’t as safe as the crowd thinks—especially in the next 2-3 months.
What happens if the Fed’s big day turns into a “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” reversal? Most people aren’t ready.
$TLT ( ▼ 0.3% ) cycles suggest that bond prices may experience pressure over the next 2-3 months.
$TNX ( 0.0% ) cycles (further below) suggest yields may go up over the next 1-2 months.
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