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European Stock Index Then

• We have been tracking the Vanguard European Stock Index ETF, VGK, for several months.

• VGK has been surprisingly strong this year, given the lousy economy in many European states, including Germany.

• In late October, we finally suggested that VGK may have topped in a corrective, very bearish Elliott Wave pattern.

Check out some older newsletters on European Markets:

European Markets 

International Markets - Continued 

Europe Stock Index Now

• It is time to revisit VGK as it is oversold on the daily chart but not yet oversold on the weekly chart. 

• The daily and weekly chart cycle composites suggest that VGK may bounce for several weeks or a few months.

• Whether the anticipated bounce will achieve a lower or higher high is TBD.

• Curiously, estimated VGK cycle composites are out of sync with the US stock market cycles composites, as shown before (see our YouTube videos).

• The weekly VGK chart shows that VGK broke below the blue wedge, which is a bearish signal.

• However, VGK is approaching a Fibonacci and chart support levels.

• We can also see that it is approaching 100W and 200W MAs.

• Thus, it is a natural area to bounce from not much below the present level.

• How much can it bounce?

• A natural target to bounce in black circle-ii is to the underside of the blue wedge before continuing to much lower levels into 2026.

• Alternatively, I identified the orange Elliott Wave count as an alternative to a slightly higher high that can hit the upper trendline of the blue wedge or, ideally, the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the September high.

• But even under the orange count, VGK should be headed to significantly lower levels in 2026.

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• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters. I post many informative charts and some real-time significance that cannot all find a place in the newsletter because of space constraints. 

  • On Tuesday evening, I posted a possible small ending diagonal in progress that can complete a five-wave Elliott Wave pattern since the August low.

  • As of this writing, mid-day on Wednesday, Bitcoin is following the presumed ending diagonal path. We shall see, as diagonals are tricky and not very predictable.

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