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Gold FOMO

• Record inflows to gold = FOMO buying → Parabolic rise in gold price.

• This is beyond central banks’ gold buying. They probably buy the pullbacks.

• Can gold ETFs buying in Asia be partly responsible with the parabolic rise in gold price.

• The call/put volume for GLD  is reminiscent of the previous gold peaks.

• Commodities-to-gold ratio is at 65 years low.

• Will you reinvest some gold profits into another commodity? Which one?

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is whipsawing in Extreme Fear, generally reflecting a negative sentiment.

• SPX is still in a downtrend below all relevant MAs. 

• It may retest April low, with a higher low most likely, although at least several weeks of consolidation/rebound may be in the cards.

• Notably, the 200D MA curled down, and that’s not good. It suggests the longer-term trend is down.

• Even if SPX breaks above the black resistance lines, it will be likely stopped by the 200D MA and technical resistance at about that level.

• NDX’s MA constellation is like the one of SPX.

• Note that NDX McClellan Summation Index (bottom window), is still in a downtrend despite the strong bounce in April. March and April bounces failed to reverse its direction.

• When this indicator reverses its direction, it is usually a good swing trade opportunity. If it whipsaws, watch for a strong continuation of the trend.

BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • I had so many interesting X tweets over the long Easter weekend. Here is a random selection, yet informative.

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