Stock Market Bounced as Expected

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SPX vs. Job Openings

• There was a departure from the positive correlation of SPX and Job Openings in the last few years.

• How do you explain this? Was this caused in part by temporary telecommuting work in the post-COVID period?

• This “open alligator mouth” should close eventually.

• I suspect it will be closed over time by an SPX correction, at least in part.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is still in Extreme Fear despite the stock market bounce. I would not be shocked if it stayed there a bit longer.

• I learned over time that corporate insiders buy and sell stocks for various reasons, such as portfolio balancing, special situations, etc.

• But when they sell/buy stocks en masse, it typically suggests that equities are overvalued/undervalued.

• In Q424, insiders were selling stock at a record pace.

• This is not a short-term timing signal, as sometimes insiders start to sell early (also, not all stocks peak/trough simultaneously), but it is one of the useful sentiment indicators to add to your repertoire.

BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • Yesterday, I re-posted some NQ targets from Sunday’s Pro newsletter on X and added a real-time update when NQ reached the 10D cycle target.

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