Stock Market Bounce in Progress

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Significant Inter-Sector Divergences

• The chart below shows that several market indices/sectors topped in November and December 2024, and the NYSE Adv/Dec line also topped in November 2024.

• The S&P 500 topped on 19 February 2025, significantly later than the previous day, masking the weakness in the broader market.

• We often follow many market indicators and notice the weakness in the internal market health.

• We posted some of these warning signals in the free newsletter.

• Based on them and other things that we analyze in the Premium content, we alerted our premium subscribers in Market Summaries before Nov’24, Dec’24, and Feb’25 highs that it is a good play to raise cash in situations like these.

• This is of intermediate—and long-term significance for the market and does not necessarily influence what will happen the next day.

Sentiment & Technical Analysis

• The CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is still in Extreme Fear. The needle barely moved despite the stock market bounce yesterday.

• The Put/Call Ratio (PCR) was very low at the February peak, comparable to the levels at Stock market highs in July, November, and December of 2024. 

• The PCR is considered a contrarian indicator. In mid-February, it indicated complacency among investors and traders.

• It jumped “smartly,” but I would prefer to see it over 0.9 and preferably close to 1 to suggest a potential of an intermediate-term bottom.

Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

  • In the Wednesday morning newsletter, I alerted premium subscribers of a potential bounce target for NQ of about 21K.

  • Just before the intraday low on Wednesday, I posted on X “Do Not Short Boring Market,” which is traders’ lingo for a potential reversal.

  • Indeed, 10-15 minutes later, NQ reversed sharply, and I immediately posted an interim target of about 20.6K, which was later reached and slightly exceeded.

  • Some of my X posts are of long-term significance, and some are of real-time significance.

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