Solar Activity Peak

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Solar Cycles vs Financial Markets – An Update

• Before I discuss this update, let me share the links from our educational posts about Solar/Sunspot cycles and financial markets. This correlation is valuable for long-term considerations, and most traders and investors are unaware of it.

Check out our Solar Cycles vs Financial Markets Part 1 and Part 2 on our Educational Resources Page (scroll to the bottom).

Do not interpret my post as a short-term sell signal, it is of long-term importance as I mentioned above.

• The upper figure is my SPX cycle composite prediction from Aug’23.

• It was spot on regarding the cycle low in Apr’24 and the uptrend since then.

• It also shows an estimated solar cycle peak in late 2024 that I devised from solar cycle predictions from a few sources.

• The lower chart shows the actual date for the present solar cycle and it sees that the solar activity has recently peaked. 

• So far, so good. But what are the implications?

  • The chart below (refer to Part 1 document) shows a near-perfect correlation between the range of change in sunspot numbers and manufacturing activity.

  • One would think that manufacturing activity has something to do with the stock market, though maybe less than 100 years ago.

So far, so good. But what are the implications?

• The chart below (refer to Part 1 document) shows a near-perfect correlation between the range of change in sunspot numbers and manufacturing activity.

• One would think that manufacturing activity has something to do with the stock market, though maybe less than 100 years ago.

• The chart below (from Part 2) shows how the peaks in the rate of change of sunspot numbers relate to peaks in specific financial markets.

• Often, the momentum peaks in solar activity correspond to the stock market peaks, but sometimes, they correspond to the peaks in precious metals or real estate.

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• Yesterday, I posted two views of multi-decade extreme stock market valuations based on typical metrics.

• It is worth paying attention to but is not a short-term sell signal.

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