“Smooshie” Market Day

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News Buzz

• A feared Iranian attack on Israel a top threat to stocks in a busy week.

• With PPI and CPI straight ahead the next two days, stocks had a lethargic session with major indexes finishing just above and below unchanged. 

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CL (Crude Oil Futures) - Cycles

I did not have any simple or notable technical analysis charts for today, so I pulled the crude oil analysis from the premium content.

• Is crude oil telling us something about the crisis evolving in the Middle East? Bullish or bearish.

• I think you could argue both, depending on the considered time horizon.

• The daily cycle composite indicates a cycle low in October with wiggles in between.

• The cyclic RSI allows for more strength before rolling over into October cycle trough.

CL – EW Count

• Based on the wave structure since Sep’23, my best guess is that CL is in the blue triangle, presently working on wave ((d)).

• After the pullback in ((e)) of B, I expect a bullish C of (B) into 2025.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 12 Aug. 2024.

What Has Been

• A non-eventful inside day in the US. There was hesitation, like expecting some news (PPI, CPI, Iranian attack on Israel?) but not sure which direction the market would take.

• Major markets around the world had a mixed day. 

• Dow declined 140.53 points or -0.36% to 39,357.01. 

• S&P 500 advanced 0.23 of a point or unchanged at 5,344.39. 

• Nasdaq advanced 35.31 points or 0.21% to 16,780.61. 

• Russell 2000 declined 18.31 points or -0.88% to 2,062.6.

What is Next

• The dilemmas from Sunday remain.

• In the short term, I expect US indexes to turn lower, whether with one more minor push higher or not.

• The bigger question is whether we will see new lows before another rebound. TBD. . .

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