September Month Ahead Edition

It’s that time of month again. . .

Our Special Month Ahead September Edition Is Out Today

At the beginning of each month we release a special Special Month Ahead Premium Edition:

• Receive In-depth Guidance for What’s Next in the Month of September for:

  • Major US Indexes

  • VXX

  • Commodities

  • Crypto

  • Bonds

  • Currencies

If you aren’t subscribed to Premium and haven’t received out full September Month Ahead Edition, don’t despair.

Anyone that upgrades to ANY premium tier from now through September 4th will receive our Special Month Ahead September Edition as a downloadable pdf.

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News Buzz

• Nvidia’s stock buyback plan is one of the biggest in 2024. 

• Intel’s stock soars in the hope of a business split. 

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average^® ($DJI) scored a series of new all-time highs in the last several days, lifted by a broadening market featuring strength in sectors outside of tech and the mega caps. Friday marked the fourth record $DJI close last week.

• Friday's data soothed investors further, with July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index up 0.2% month over month, as analysts expected. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% from a year ago, below the 2.7% consensus, helping firm notions of a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September.

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Stock Market Overvaluation

• Stock Market overvaluation is historically extreme, based on various metrics.

• A red flag for LT stock market prospects.

• Expect possible negative returns in the next decade.

• Not an ST timing signal.

Margin Debt

• Margin debt fuels stock.

• It is in a danger category, as I shared many of the LT indicators over the last few months.

• Not an ST timing signal but an indicator of negative LT stock market prospects.

• I like establishing an LT position during the culmination of selling due to margin calls, which is not any time soon.

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Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters. On Friday afternoon, I posted a newly generated target for Bitcoin.

Market Summary

As of the market close on 30 August 2024.

What Has Been

• We warned premium subscribers about a possible turnaround on Thursday, given the positive seasonality of Labor Day and the beginning of September, plus our ST cycle indications and EW counts. The market obliged.

• The SPX climbed 56.44 points (1.01%) to 5,648.40, roughly flat for the week. 

• The $DJI rose 228.03 points (0.55%) to 41,563.08, up almost 1% for the week. 

• The Nasdaq Composite^® ($COMP) added 197.19 points (1.13%) to 17,713.62, down nearly 1% from a week ago.

• The 10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) climbed three basis points to 3.91% but fell about 20 basis points in August.

• The Cboe Volatility Index^® (VIX) fell moderately to 14.96, well below levels above 30 recorded earlier this month.

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