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Semiconductors: SMH ETF
I made a major warning on SOX & NVDA several weeks ago. Today we will review VanEck Semiconductor ETF, SMH.
SMH has satisfied all cycle targets, down from the top, up to the 80D cycle. With a steep decline and momentum down, it is very likely to slice through the gray FLD band and generate a 20W cycle target of around 165+/-.
But considering it overvaluation relative to SPX, which we posted before, and considering that SPX is also significantly overvalued, there is much bigger down potential. The chart below shows the weekly cycle composite including 2.3Y and 3.3Y cycles. The next 12 months will have a negative bias, similar to the NVDA cycle composite shown before. NVDA is one of major components of SMH.
The semiconductor sector is important for NDX and the stock market overall; we should watch it closely.
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