Santa Rally is Getting Tricky

Do you Want to Feel Like a Smart Investor?

The Premium Newsletter provides key information about the stock market’s trends that you need to know.

Golden insights about the Stock Market, Commodities, Crypto, Bonds & Forex, several times a week.

Upgrade to Premium at a rock bottom promotional price of $29/month.

We’d like to take a break in our “regularly scheduled programing” with a sponsored message.

We are truly grateful for your engagement with sponsor ads and free newsletter recommendations. Your support is crucial for us to continue publishing the free newsletter.

Novaxidil Triple Action Hair Regrowth Treatment

Novaxidil is a Premium OTC Triple Action hair loss treatment that stimulates hair regrowth, prevents further loss, AND nourishes your scalp with a combination of clinically proven ingredients: 5% Minoxidil, 2% K-Conazole, 1% Nicotinamide, Vitamin K, Biotin, and Collagen Peptides.

Our team of MD/PhD's formulated Novaxidil to maximize results while minimizing side effects.

MINOXIDIL 5%: Minoxidil is the Gold Standard for hair regrowth. It achieves this by shortening the telogen phase, extending the anagen phase, increasing blood flow to the scalp, and increasing dermal papilla cell activity.

K-CONAZOLE™ 2%: Studies have shown that K-Conazole™, a proprietary version of the popular compound, blocks the production of dihydrotestosterone (DHT), a hormone linked to male pattern baldness, as effectively as prescription alternatives like FINA without the side effects. It works by inhibiting the 5-alpha reductase (5AR) enzyme, which converts testosterone into DHT.

NICOTINAMIDE 1%: Nicotinamide, also known as niacinamide, has potent effects on hair regrowth. In studies, it has been shown to increase blood flow, and reduce inflammation to the scalp, as well as prevent premature catagen entry, and increase hair thickness. Nicotinamide works in synergy with Minoxidil, and K-Conazole™ to maximize hair regrowth, and minimize loss like no other product on the market!

Before you give up, and start rocking the "bald look," give Novaxidil a try. We're confident you won't regret it.

Learn More

EWT Lesson 5a: Impulse Wave Example – Bitcoin Count 1

• Consider the Bitcoin (BTC) chart below. It is busy with my notes, Fibonacci lines, trendlines, etc., which will be useful to facilitate my explanations.

  Elliot Wave (EW) Counting is not easy and requires time to master it. During a wave pattern in progress, there are multiple competing count alternatives, and it is not possible to guess the correct one initially. 

  However, I will show you that you do not need to be a master in EW pattern recognition and wave counting to be a very successful EW trader.

Upgrade to Pro and Read More about Bitcoin.

• Context: 

  At the beginning of August, with the BTC reversal, an EW trader has the following thoughts:

  • BTC drop from March high looked corrective with overlapping waves.

  • An it is a correction within a bigger uptrend. A trader always needs to know the main trend!

  • Most likely wave ((iv)) is completed.

  • I need to enter a long position.

  Digression - Most Profitable EW Trades:

  EW traders in uptrends want to go long after waves 1-2 to catch a big advance in wave 3, with a stop-Ioss just below the origin of wave 1. In downtrends, traders want to go short after waves 1-2.

  Similarly, in corrective waves A-B-C, go long after A-B, with a stop loss below the origin of wave (A).

  When the assumption of sequence 1-2 completion is wrong, the risk of these trades is much smaller than the potential gain.

  From Lesson 4, you can figure out that the loss can typically be about 38% of the length of wave 1, while the gain can be 162%- 262% or more, i.e., the gains will be more than 4X-6X potential losses.

  Entering a Trade:

  August-September Period

  The hypothetical trader above looks at the wave pattern from early August to early September, and these are his thoughts and actions.

  • On 7 Sep, the trader noticed a reversal from just below 53K after a potentially completed corrective pattern with positive RSI divergence at the price low.

  • He is looking for wave (ii) completion, but the bounce from 5 Aug to 25 Aug looks corrective. He is confused for a moment. Then he realizes wave (i) was completed on 8 Aug, and the rest was an a-b-c expanded flat corrective pattern for wave (ii), which retraced about 78.6% of wave (i).

  • He opens a long position at 53K with a stop loss just below the end of ((iv)) at 49,202.8. The risk is about 4K.

  • He calculated potential targets and profits using light blue lines (in August interval above the price pattern), as explained in Lesson 4. Wave (v) will reach 76K to 90K (2X to 3X of the length of wave (i)) or more, and the profit will be about 23 K to 37 K or more.

  • So far so good.

  September-October Period

  • On 27 Sep, the price exceeds the Aug high, and the trader moves the stop to just below wave (ii), and now it is a virtually risk-free trade.

  • At the end of October, he observes an overlapping price pattern and starts to have doubts about the bullish case. But he realizes it can be a leading diagonal I, and wave (iii) may be extended (we will talk about extended waves in a later lesson).

  • He is waiting for a deep pullback after a leading diagonal, typically 66-82% as per EWT guidelines (See Frost & Prechter book), to add to the long position. 

  • But the pullback in ii was shallow and the price breaks impulsively above wave i. Our trader adds to the long position at about 74.5K to capture the gains in the most profitable wave iii of (iii) and sets stops for both long positions below wave ii at 66,790, where the first long is guaranteed a profit of >13K and the second long has a risk of about 8K, overall guaranteed profit of about 5K at the stop loss exit, if it happens.

  • He observes that the price is comfortably above 10D EMA and 50D MA, so both the shot- and medium-term trends are up, and there is no immediate danger of triggering the stop loss.

  • He quickly calculates potential profits using blue lines for extensions of wave i. Wave v may reach 2x to 3x of wave I, i.e. 94K-115K or more.

  • He also realizes that when wave (iii) is extended, wave (v) typically reaches 421.6% Fibonacci expansion of (i)-(ii), which is at almost 110K (this is not a rule, but normally happens). He assumes 110K as a target, with potential profits for the first and second longs of approximately 57K and 35K, respectively. Not bad.

  • He watches his longs getting greener and greener.

  December Period

  • In early December, our trader counts five waves in wave iii and observes a start of correction in wave iv. He knows from EWT that there is still wave v of (iii) and (iv) and (v) to come before wave ((v)) is completed.

  • He is not trading “small” wave iv, as fourth waves are unpredictable. But he observes a potential bullish triangle for iv, after which there will be one more pop for v to complete (iii).

  • After the pop in v, the trader notices that there was a negative divergence in RSI at the peak of v/(iii), which is a warning that the momentum is fading.

  • He also noticed that the grey trendline rejected wave v/(iii).

  • He takes profits on a fraction of the long position with the idea to redeploy these $$$ after wave (iv) is completed. Alternatively, if his count is wrong and that was the top, he took some profits at the top, and he will exit the rest of the long position on a break of support and a drop below 50% of wave (iii).

  Now, this is not something that I recommend as a standard trade but more as an illustration of how our trader may have acted further.

  • After a sharp drop in wave a and three waves up followed by three waves down, our trader thinks maybe it (wave a) was all of wave (iv) and (v) will be an ending diagonal.

  • He redeploys raised $$$ and looks to exit position near the grey trendline, respected so far, and green 423.6% fib. 

  • When the BTC price touched the trendline, he observed that it could only be an ugly, non-overlapping ending diagonal, which is a small probability.

  • He realizes it is more likely a wave b of an expanded flat (iv), and wave c down should be in five waves to below wave a. Notice that wave iii almost reached the 161.8% fib, but wave v failed to reach the 200% fib. But wave b reached the 200% fib. 

  • Nevertheless, he sells half of his longs with the idea to redeploy $$$ upon the completion of wave (iv), considering that he might exit the longs completely on the break of support.

  • At this time, while the price is hugging 50D MA, he is still waiting to re-enter the half of the long position he sold after the completion of blue micro-5, circle-5, of c of (iv), somewhere in the red rectangle, which is a typical target range for wave (iv), between 23.6% and 38.2% red retrace fibs.

  Final Notes: 

  • Although many teachings in this lesson are valuable, and you should study all Fibonacci wave relations that I did not mention, the most crucial takeaway is my explanation of how to recognize and enter a predictably profitable trade with proper risk management after identifying waves (i)-(ii) and i-ii. You should learn to execute and repeat these trades many times.

Find more educational resource and lessons, here.

Check out this #FREE #newsletter. Just click the link below.

Depth vs Length of Corrections

• The yellow line fit is mine.

To continue reading about Market Summary, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies or crypto, upgrade to Premium Pro. . .

The $100 Trillion Opportunity in AI?

The rise of AI is shaping up to be bigger than any financial trend we’ve seen before. According to seasoned investor James Altucher, this next-gen AI revolution could create a $100 TRILLION industry, and early investors could stand to benefit. He’s even laid out how a $10K investment might turn into $1 million over the coming years. Want to see the details?

Check out his personal message here

Shop our Book and Software Recommendations

Have a question? Want to leave us feedback?

Contact us at: [email protected]

Read our Disclaimer

Become a paying subscriber of Market Twists & Turns - Pro to get access to the rest of this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • All the benefits of our Free and Basic tiers, plus
• • Ad free
• • Downloadable pdf version of the full length newsletter
• • Updates and opportunities 4-5x/week on
• • Individual major stocks and ETFs
• • International markets, forex, cryptocurrencies, bonds and commodities
• • All featuring advanced cycle methods for market timing with expert Elliott Wave and technical analysis, and more...