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Santa Did Not Come to Wall Street This Year
What Are the Implications of Santa Rally Failure?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
January 04, 2026
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Today, we will examine the Benner Cycle that predicts that 2026 is a good year to sell stocks and other assets.
Benner's Cycles
Samuel Benner, an Ohio farmer, published "Benner's Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices" in 1875, based on his analysis of historical economic patterns in agriculture, commodities, and business cycles.
The figure shows the original Benner Cycle chart. Apparently, the diagram was initially compiled by Tritch (1872), but it was not attributed to him.
The cycle chart published 150 years ago suggests that 2026 should be a good year to sell stocks and other valuable assets.
What’s the accuracy of the Benner Cycle?
Dewey (1967), the Director of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, assessed Benner's pig iron price forecasts and thought that they accurately gave “the years in which to buy, the years in which to sell.
If you had used these dates for trading, your percentage gains between 1872 and 1939 would have been 50 times your losses!” He also regarded Benner's work as “the most notable forecast of prices in existence.”
Interesting improvements by Frost and McMinn, including a 9/56 grid possibly correlated with the Moon Sun Cycle, are discussed in McMinn, D., 2022. Benner Cycles & the 9/56-year grid. Cycles Magazine. Vol 51. No 5. p 8-29.
Note: A rigid calendar application of the Benner Cycle has a mixed record, but adding or subtracting a year or two yields remarkable results. One should realize that some cycles vary over time but generally return to their stable state. Their accuracy and duration are also affected by shorter and longer cycles, as well as “random” events such as new technological breakthroughs.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
Santa Claus rally did not happen this year, not entirely unexpected; The positive seasonality of the first trading day in January did not help.
The adage "If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall" holds statistically as a cautionary signal, but it's not foolproof.
Since the mid-1990s, the Santa rally failed 6 times; In 5 out of these 6 times, the market had mildly negative returns in January.
The Benner Cycle suggests a top in 2026. The 18.6-year real estate cycle presented in a previous issue indicates a peak in home prices.
But these are long-term cycles that allow for much tolerance. The devil is in the details, i.e., short-term market timing, to pinpoint market peaks and troughs.
This is a tough nut to crack and is one of the aspects of the Pro newsletter.. . .
To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto upgrade to Premium Pro. . .
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