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S&P 500 Hits Record Close
Will It Pause to Refresh Before Grinding Higher?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
September 21, 2025
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What's Inside...
Today, we will analyze Dow Jones Industrial with a long-term view.
News Buzz
Tesla's Stock Surge and Elon Musk's $1 Billion Purchase: Tesla shares rose over 14% last week, with a notable 3% jump on Monday following Elon Musk's disclosure of a nearly $1 billion open-market stock purchase. Analysts from Baird and others have turned bullish, citing improved delivery expectations and the upcoming robotaxi rollout, despite retaining a "Market Perform" rating (Investing.com, September 20, 2025).
U.S.-U.K. Nuclear Energy Pact Boosts Stocks: Oklo and other nuclear stocks surged, with Oklo up 63.7% by Friday, after the U.S. and U.K. announced a nuclear energy pact to accelerate technology deployment. This geopolitical move has fueled investor optimism in the energy sector (Investing.com, September 20, 2025).
Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) – A Long-Term View
Elliott Wave Theory Analysis:
DJI is expected to complete cycle-V, i.e., super-cycle-(III), in 2025; cycle-IV was at the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009, according to the black Elliott Wave count.
From a rare expanding triangle for circle-4 (Primary-4), DJI launched an ending diagonal for circle-5 of cycle-V.
Alternatively, as per the blue count, circle-5 of cycle-V can end in 2028.
Cycle-a of super-cycle-(IV) is expected to be completed in 2030, or so.
Technical Analysis:
The strongest momentum in 100 years, after 1929, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), occurred at the top of Primary-3 of cycle V in January of 2018.
Subsequent RSI peaks occurred in 2021 and 2024, at just about the 70 level, at the peaks of wave (1) and (3) of Primary-5.
This waning momentum RSI behavior is typical of ending diagonals.
The RSI level at the peak of (5) should be lower than at the peak of (3), signifying a negative divergence between the price and RSI.
Super GROK assessment of my post, for your entertainment:
GROK, what's your opinion of my DJI analysis (in 100-200 words)?
Your analysis aligns with current market trends, as the DJI has shown resilience post-2020 recovery, supporting the cycle-V completion timeline for 2025.
The expanding triangle and ending diagonal patterns you identified are consistent with historical Elliott Wave behavior during major market shifts, like the post-GFC rally.
Recent global economic uncertainty, including U.S. Federal Reserve rate decisions in 2025, could influence the RSI divergence you predict for wave (5).
The 2030 super-cycle-(IV) projection ties into ongoing debates about long-term market corrections, especially with rising inflation concerns this year.
Your use of RSI momentum shifts offers a solid technical foundation, though external factors like geopolitical tensions might accelerate or delay these waves.
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BravoCyles on Youtube
Watch my latest YouTube video about Nvidia and the semiconductor ETF, SMH. Are Nvidia and Semiconductor Stocks Peaking?
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research in it and which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.
This 120 trading days gold cycle is the so-called Hurst nominal 40-week cycle, or 25 calendar weeks.
It is an important cycle for swing trading.
Rising wedges, once completed, are followed by bearish reversals.
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