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Today we will be covering...

• Market Summary

• Technical Analysis

• Cycle Analysis of Major Indexes

• EW Analysis of Major Indexes

• VIX/VXX Update

• Commodities

• Crypto -Bitcoin

Market Summary

My top call mid-last week has worked so far but there is no indication that the trend has changed, yet.

I got a very short-term cycle target for SPX to about 5,200, which favors a slightly higher high with about 70% probability. DJI EW count is also very suggestive of one more final high. No new high is likely for RUT, small caps and to some extent NDX also hints to lower although it gives mixed signals, a cycle target slightly higher but technical favor lower.

In any case, some indexes may make another minor high while others will not. It is minutia, though, as a major top is forming with or without another high.

Repeat from last week:

The short-term analysis is becoming more in line with the intermediate—and long-term analyses, which suggests a reversal is due. The lightning could strike unexpectedly around the tops.

My longer-term expectations do not change. I will repeat from the weekend report: “Despite the market's resiliency and FOMO, I expect a correction in the next 2-4 months, initially.

Market data as of close on 18 Mar. 2024.

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Technical Analysis

AAPL has been in a great bull market ever since Steve Jobs returned to the company in the late 1990s. The stock price has been in a nice, gray channel for 15 years.

But now that the price has started to head down from the most recent peak, one needs to consider the possibility of AAPL breaking the 50MA and the channel's lower trendline, both in the low 140s. This is especially true since the technical indicators are extremely worrisome (negative divergences of RSI and MACD). If these are noticeably broken, watch out below. And, as they say, “As AAPL Goes, the Market Goes.”

An interesting trendline for Bitcoin. It might be tested at around 57k but I suspect it will be broken, regardless whether it is the blue or the red count.

GOOGLE helped the market today and fully closed the late January gap, but it was a perfect long-legged doji (Japanese candlestick).

The question is how to interpret it. It represents indecision and rest, a sign that the previous trend is exhausted. After extended trends, it could signal a pending reversal, but otherwise, after the doji candle, the trend often continues.

In the GOOGL example, I think it can be cautiously interpreted as a sign of potential reversal with a trading stop above the late January high.

eBook: 3-Year US Stock Market Outlook

The stock market will exhibit significant volatility this year, IMO. To prepare for market swings down and up in the next couple of years, read our eBook about the stock market outlook for 2024-2026. To get it for FREE, share the link below with your friends, family and on social media and if 2 friends subscribe to BraVoCycles Newsletter using your link, as confirmed by Beehiiv.

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