A Quick Update on Bitcoin, SPX, VXX and AAPL

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Table of Contents

• Summary

• Bitcoin Update

• Technical Analysis

• Sentiment

• Cycles Update

• Major Indexes Cycle Price Projections and EW Coun …

• VIX Update

• Annex 1- AAPL

Summary

The main reason for this update is Bitcoin’s sharp drop on Wednesday. Otherwise, not much new information has developed since the last report. What we said in Wednesday’s report still applies. Some indexes may have topped, but others appear to need another high, according to EWT. In the short term, indexes are oversold and might form a temporary bottom soon. Shorter cycles in SPX also allow for more up in the next week or two, perhaps just a bounce or possibly a new high. Although many daily and weekly chart indicators suggest a top of significance is forming, there is no reliable indication yet that the top has indeed formed. Long story short, allow, cautiously, for some additional strength, but be mindful that the top may be in place in some indexes.

Bitcoin Update

Check out our Bitcoin summary on Youtube.

• The video was recorded last evening, Bitcoin bounced today and satisfied some short cycle targets which extend to about the 45.5k area;

• That might be it, but if Bitcoin exceeds the resistance at about 45.5k+/- it may generate additional targets above the last high, say to the 48-49k area approximately;

• Considering that it still has some up bias from some shorter cycles for several more days the 48-49k (speculative/conditional target) might eventually happen, we shall see, as the Bitcoin is strongly news affected.

Technical Analysis

• All technical indicators from the daily and weekly charts still paint a bearish picture in the medium- and long-term;

• In the short term, the technical indicators are oversold, as can be seen in Figure 1;

• They are potentially developing positive divergencies, and a bounce could be expected soon, but sometimes they just keep selling it in an oversold condition, just like the reverse, i.e., buying in overbought conditions;

• A caution about bottoming is required as SPX, RTY and NDX have N40D cycle target about 0.5-1% lower.

Sentiment

• The medium- and long-term sentiment indicators are receding from extremes but have a long way to go before getting “oversold,” i.e., to reflect investors’ pessimism;

• The short-term OPTIX, shown in Figure 2 (data from last night) is also pulling back from extreme but not yet “oversold”, though one more negative day could get it there, perhaps new data this evening might show close to “oversold” or getting there tomorrow;

• – OPTIX includes indicators like put/call ratios, mutual fund flows, futures traders’ positioning, sentiment surveys, etc.;

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