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NVDA to Da Moon?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
February 11, 2024
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Table of Contents
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Market Summary
There is not much to add to what we stated last week. The market keeps grinding up despite many indications that a reversal is due. Specifically, technical indicators, sentiment, cycles, and most EW count alternatives suggest that a reversal is due soon. But the market does not seem to be paying attention to these technicalities. As they say, the market can do whatever it wants.
NVDA Phenomenon
NVDA is creating a lot of buzz. Some people are still bullish, and many are doubtful. Is NVDA going to the Moon, or is it going to reverse soon? We will try to give an objective analysis.
The weekly cycles composite in the figure below suggests that NVDA is in the peak region and could turn decisively down soon. However, we must provide a few weeks of tolerance because of cycle estimation imperfections, especially since the weekly chart may not have captured some short cycles. But in the bigger picture, NVDA should exhibit a weakness this year due to about a 2-year cycle turning down.
The Elliott Wave chart below shows that the wave pattern does not look complete if my wave counting is correct. NVDA needs at least one more down-up wave sequence to complete a 5-wave impulse from late 2018. Moreover, the technical indicators are very strong (see, e.g., embedded RSI), and having a top in place with such technical indicators would be very unusual, but not impossible. A down-up sequence may provide for more typical negative divergences in technical indicators at the price peak.
So, how do we reconcile the two charts above? We should allow for another higher high while considering the likely multi-month bearish bias.
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Sentiment
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is again in the extreme greed territory. Click on the link to see all the components:
Short-term hourly charts and the short-term OPTIX (price oscillators, cumulative tick, put/call ratios, etc.) are overbought. A pullback could happen soon.
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