Market Trying to Stabilize

Fast, accurate financial writeups

When accuracy matters, typing can introduce errors and slow you down. Wispr Flow captures your spoken thinking and turns it into formatted, number-ready text for reports, investor notes, and executive briefings. It cleans filler words, enforces clear lists, and keeps your voice professional. Use voice snippets for standard financial lines, recurring commentary, or compliance-ready summaries. Works on Mac, Windows, and iPhone. Try Wispr Flow for finance.

Start flowing free

What’s Moving Markets

• AI "Whack-a-Mole" Anxiety Dominates, Spreading Beyond Tech: Lingering fears of AI disrupting business models hammered software, wealth management, trucking/logistics, real estate services, and high-fee industries. The selloff (which began last week) weighed heavily on the Nasdaq early Tuesday and on chip/software ETFs, with the Nasdaq 100 on pace for its worst month since March 2025. Broader markets mixed/flat despite cooler inflation—classic "bad news ignored, good news shrugged off" dynamic signaling uncertainty.

• Major Indices End Volatile Week Mixed, But Trying to Bounce After the Holiday: After some weakness in the futures overnight, SPX, NDX, and DJI ended slightly green, 0.1%, 0.14%, and 0.07%, respectively. 

• VIX Spikes to 23, Signaling Renewed Fear Grip, But Retreats in Afternoon: The "fear gauge" climbed to about 23 intraday Tuesday, but then dropped sharply. This reflects rotation out of growth/tech into defensives, with volatility roaring back after months of calm—Watch our VIX YouTube video.

• Fed Voices Mixed on Rates; "Several More" Cuts Possible if Inflation Tracks to 2%: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee downplayed January's softer CPI (headline +2.4% YoY) as masking sticky services (~3.2%), but reiterated potential for multiple 2026 cuts if disinflation sustains. Other Fed speakers (e.g., Barr on AI/labor) added nuance. Upcoming PCE (Friday) and Q4 GDP eyed closely—could shift rate-cut pricing and fuel volatility if surprises hit.

• Sector & Corporate Notes: Financials outperformed amid rotation; food/consumer stocks slid on weak sentiment warnings (e.g., General Mills cut outlook). Bitcoin extended its February rout; gold pressured earlier but is less in focus now. International/emerging markets holding firmer, dodging U.S. tech drag.

• Investor Sentiment Stays "Uber-Bullish" Despite Warnings: Bank of America fund manager survey shows heavy equity overweight and rising cash balances, but growing concerns over corporate overinvestment in AI/capex. Global investors remain optimistic on assets, yet warn gains may slow—echoing the tension between macro resilience and disruption risks. See my X post on BofA Bull/Bear Ration from 10 days ago. Upgrade with a Free Trial

Ethereum (ETH) – Dominant Cycle

• The chart below shows the dominant 258 calendar day cycle detected on the daily chart; the most stable and relatively the strongest cycle.

• We refer to it as the Hurst nominal 40W cycle; the actual period is 8.5 months.

• $ETH ( ▲ 11.99% ) is oversold, but there is still no positive c-RSI divergence; this is desirable, but not a must.

• ETH price has been responsive to this cycle in the last few years.

• We do not always get an obvious visual price-cycle matching like in this case.

• But in non-trending markets, dominant cycles are generally easier to detect by the naked eye.

• Note: Do not infer price levels from cycle amplitudes. Cycle peaks and troughs are approximate price turning points.

• In the Pro newsletter, we follow Ethereum and Bitcoin, including cycles, cycle price projections, and Elliot wave counts closely. 

BravoCyles on Youtube

• Watch my latest YouTube video about VIX. What Message is Volatility (VIX) Sending?

BraVoCycles on X

• If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing a lot by not following me on X, as I do not have enough canvas space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to post on X. Also, I often post important real-time updates between the newsletters.

We just joined Threads. Follow BravoCycles on Threads!

What’s Next for the Stock Market?

• After a turbulent week, the stock market tried to stabilize on Tuesday.

• The overnight selling in the futures was absorbed by buying in the cash market. 

• S&P 500 found support at 100D MA, but it is still below the 10D EMA and 50D MA

• It needs to be back above the 10D EMA to establish a short-term uptrend. . .

To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto claim your Free Trial to Premium Pro. . .

Is something off with your cash flow?

If your revenue looks fine, but you're always in reaction mode, you need to take the The Find Your Flow Assessment. It shows you exactly where money friction is occurring in your business and what to fix first. And it only takes five minutes.

Get Clarity Now

_{Educational only.}

Shop our Book and Software Recommendations

Have a question? Want to leave us feedback?

Contact us at: [email protected]

Read our Disclaimer

Become a paying subscriber of Market Twists & Turns - Pro to get access to the rest of this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • In-depth analysis & analysis multiple times/week on SPX, NDX, DJI, RUT, VIX/VXX, plus
• • Bonds, commodities, forex, international markets, select stocks, & EFTs
• • Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis (EWA)
• • Price projections using Cycle methods and Fibonacci levels
• • Ad-free & downloadable pdf version