Market Timing and Price Projections

Table of Contents

1. Cycles Update

2. EW Charts of Indexes

3. VIX update

4. BITI Update

5. Special Opportunity

Summary

Did the market top for now? Perhaps, but I doubt it. Certainly, indexes are losing momentum. One could make a case that the Elliott wave structures in ES and NQ are completed, but I could see other ways to count that allow more up at the micro level. Ideally, I would like a bit higher for ES and SPX to reach their targets (SPX on the daily chart 4583-4618), but I am on alert watching for the top. It could take several more days before indexes roll over, perhaps for a 3-5% pullback. Only NDX achieved all up-cycle targets, and sometimes it exceeds them, while SPX, DJI, and RUT still have higher targets. The consolidation of the last several days may be just a precursor for one more pop higher. That would be in line with seasonal expectations, i.e. the first few days of pension funds inflows at the beginning of December. Whether a new high will be achieved or not is largely academic as the upside is limited, in my opinion.

Subscribe to the Pro Tier to read the rest.