Market Review- December 26, 2023

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Table of Contents

• Market Review

  • Technical Analysis

  • Sentiment

  • Cycles

  • Elliot Waves Status of Major Indexes

  • Conclusion

• Cycles Update

• Major Indexes- Cycle Price Projections and EW Coun …

• VIX Update

• Annex 1 – Long-term TLT/Bonds Outlook Special

Market Review

• What should we expect this week?

  • Low volume, mostly “retail” participation;

  • Volatility is often tame during the last week of the year;

  • But considering that an ending diagonal (micro-wise) is a potential EW count, low participation may also yield some quick pullbacks and rebounds on a nano/micro scale.

• Are fund managers going to lock in some recent gains before the end of 2023 or investors are going to push profit-taking into January to defer taxes?

  • I do not know, probably a mix of the two;

  • I do expect some kind of top in most indexes this or next week.

Where is TSLA going?

• Although a correction in 2024 is expected TSLA is very bullish 2+/- years out;

• TSLA Cycles Case Study elaborates details in the below YouTube video:

After several “massive” reports this issue will be succinct. Respectful of the Holiday “schedule.”

The next report will be on January 1, unless something of significance develops in the meantime.

Technical Analysis

• We have beaten to death daily and weekly charts TA lately.

• Anything new from TA?

  • Not really – the TA picture continues to develop negatively in ST, MT, and LT.

Sentiment

• Check out the last several issues for some nice sentiment charts;

• Figure 1 shows one more example of Sentiment extremes;

• Advisor & Investor Model (AIM) is a model consisting of sentiment readings from several popular advisor and investor surveys – Among the top 4 readings in the last 10 years.

• Ran into the title below – Note “Goldilocks scenario next year”

• What would happen if it is not exactly “Goldilocks…?”

  

Cycles

• A non-eventful day on Wall Street, typical Holiday week grind higher, just as expected;

• Repeating from the weekend report:

  • There is still some bullish fuel in a couple of cycles, perhaps for another week of grinding higher, e.g. the nominal 20W (N20W) and N10D cycles could still provide some upward bias for another 3-4 trading days or so (the 2.2Y cycle is also peaking but it has wider tolerances);

  • Major indexes reached the N20W cycle projections but they could still move higher within the target ranges, or toward shorter cycle targets.

Elliot Waves Status of Major Indexes

• Repeating from the weekend report:

  • Elliott Wave (EW) counts of most major indexes ideally require another higher high;

  • But sometimes things are not ideal at significant tops and bottoms, e.g. another sudden rug pull reversal may cause a truncation of the last wave in the EW structure.

Conclusion

Repeating from the weekend report: “Based on the considerations above, and analysis in our premium content section of the newsletter, one could expect some further minor upside next week in most major indexes but expect a correction into late February or early March 2024. There is also a potential for a bigger correction into the Fall of 2024, but it is premature to talk about that now. One step at a time.”

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