Market Reversal?

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News Buzz

• The rally earlier this week reflected growing hopes that the Fed could initiate a string of rate cuts starting in September with inflation easing and the jobs market losing some zip. Powell's 10 a.m. ET speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium might provide more input on the rate path, but much of the enthusiasm seemed baked in before Thursday's session.

• "The growth concerns that were triggered by the soft employment data (and recessionary indicators) at the beginning of the month have abated, at least for now, as confidence is increasing around a soft landing for the economy," he added. "We're essentially back to all-time highs on the S&P 500^® index, and while the soft landing looks achievable, everything may be priced in at current levels."

• Powel’s Jackson Hole speeches tend to lift stock - but when they don’t, the drop is doozy.

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Crude Oil Cycles 

• Cl is potentially readying to bounce. 

• The cycle composite suggests a continuation of a sideways correction until Nov-Dec.

• Then, a swing up into early 2025. More details in the premium content.

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• Consider following my posts on X (former Twitter), as I often post timely charts in between newsletters.

•  If you are reading the free newsletter and not following me on X, you are missing a lot. The free newsletter and my X channel go like “a hand in glove.”

•  Yesterday, I reposted a super-timely chart from the premium newsletter in pre-open hours.

Market Summary

As of 8 pm EST on 22 August, 2024.

What Has Been

• I called for a reversal, at least an ST one, and the US market obliged.

• Asia and Europe were mixed, and the US market was red.

• Dow declined 177.71 points or -0.43% to 40,712.78. 

• S&P 500 declined 50.21 points or -0.89% to 5,570.64. 

• Nasdaq declined 299.63 points or 1.67% to 17,619.35. 

• Russell 2000 declined 20.53 points or -0.95% to 2,150.03.

What’s Next

• It is good that US indexes reversed to validate my counts and analysis.

• I do not have anything to add to my Summary on Thursday.

• My biggest issue is figuring out which EW counts are in play in this down move, as the wave structure is unclear. Maybe I get some clarity for Sunday’s report.

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