Market Outlook – Top Is In?

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17-Year Cycle

• A subscriber reminded me about the 17Y cycle in the economic literature called the Kuznets cycle.

• Previous peaks: 1973, 1990 & 2007.

• The peak is due this summer, but such long cycles should be given a wide tolerance margin.

• Also notice a very strong multi-year negative RSI divergence on the monthly SPX chart.

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NDX Channel Overthrow & Reverse

• This looks like a classical overthrow of the gray and blue channels with a sharp reversal. 

• That is bearish and a very initial signal that the top may be in place.

• A stronger confirmation of a longer-term top would be decisively below 19.5k and the downtrend line of the gray channel.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 11 July 2024.

What Has Been

• What a day. Nasdaq was about 2% down, and Russell 2000 was 3.6% up! This does not happen often. A fake rotation? Possibly.

• Dow advanced 32.39 points or 0.08% to 39,753.75

• S&P 500 declined 49.37 points or -0.88% to 5,584.54

• Nasdaq declined 364.04 points or -1.95% to 18,283.41

• Russell 2000 advanced 73.28 points or 3.57% to 2,125.03

• Asian markets were mixed, while major European markets were green.

• US Treasury yields were down across the board.

• Today’s selloff was overdue and anticipated a couple of days ago.

• We have likely seen a . . .

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