Market Outlook – Frantic Market

Still “To Be or Not To Be”

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News Buzz

  • Wall Street shook off Friday's unpleasant June reading on wholesale prices, climbing to new intraday record highs as the rally broadened beyond a handful of tech-focused mega caps. 

  • PPI rose 0.2% when analysts had expected a 0.1% gain, which is a bit of a sting following Thursday's encouraging June Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core PPI, which extracts volatile food and energy, was even higher at 0.4%, while annual headline PPI climbed 2.6%, the most since March 2023. 

  • Meta to lift restrictions on Trump’s accounts ahead of the election.

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Kondratieff Cycle

  • A great depiction of 54Y+/- Kondratieff cycle.

  • Why is the envelope broadening? Population growth?

  • Used to be good for the economy and commodities.

  • Not sure if it will continue to predict economic cycles because ...

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Sentiment

  • Speculation in US index futures is extreme.

  • Follow me on X (former Twitter) for timely market updates between the newsletters. My X posts and the newsletter go like a “hand in glove.” Timely NQ posts on Friday.

Market Summary

Market Data

As of close on 12 July 2024.

What Has Been

  • Frenetic US market last couple of days. Great for day traders.

  • Another day of strength in the broader market outside of Magnificent 7.

  • Does this market broadening have legs? I am not convinced. 

  • The Asian and European major markets were mixed.

  • Dow advanced 247.15 points or 0.62% to 40,000.9.

  • S&P 500 advanced 30.81 points or 0.55% to 5,615.35.

  • Nasdaq advanced 115.04 points or 0.63% to 18,393.44.

  • Russell 2000 advanced 23.23 points or 1.09% to 2,148.26.

  • The 10-year Treasury note yield closed basically unchanged, just below 4.19%.

  • The Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) fell slightly to 12.49.

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What is Next

  • The major indexes we regularly follow, such as SPX, NDX, DJI, and extremely overhyped/overextended SOX, are all due . . .

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