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Market Losing Steam? This Week's Warning Signs
BraVoCycles Newsletter
February 15, 2026
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Today we will be covering...
Today, we will present Part I of the Software Sector analysis, including Salesforce, Oracle, and Intuit.
What is s driving market choppiness?
Wednesday, Feb 11 — Markets whipsawed after a stronger-than-expected January jobs report (nonfarm payrolls +130k vs. expectations of ~70k, unemployment dipping to 4.3%). This muddied Fed rate-cut hopes, pushing Treasury yields higher and capping gains. Indices closed mixed/slightly lower (S&P 500 -0.1% or flat, Dow -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%), with tech and growth names under pressure amid ongoing AI valuation concerns.
Thursday, Feb 12 — A sharp tech sell-off accelerated as "AI capex fatigue" and disruption fears intensified. Cisco Systems plunged ~12% on weak guidance (signaling softer enterprise spending), dragging the sector lower. The Dow fell ~1.3% (-669 points), S&P 500 -1.6%, Nasdaq -2.0%. Broader worries about AI's impact on jobs/business models outweighed positive macro signals, leading to the week's biggest single-day losses.
Friday, Feb 13 — Markets stabilized somewhat after the January CPI came in softer than expected (~2.4% headline YoY, below forecasts), easing inflation fears and boosting bets on Fed cuts later in 2026. Treasury yields fell (10-year down to ~4.06%), supporting defensive sectors. However, lingering tech jitters limited upside: S&P 500 barely flat (+0.03% to ~6,835), Dow +0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%. The week closed with the S&P 500 down ~1.4%, Dow -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.1% — the Nasdaq's fifth straight weekly decline.
Software Sector Part II – Oracle (ORCL)
After the AI-hyped earnings release spike, $ORCL ( ▲ 1.64% ) plunged more than 50%.
The four dominant cycles indicate it could rebound into summer, then down again.
One can make a case that ORCL dropped in five waves. Then, if this is correct, according to the Elliott Wave Theory, it should bounce in three waves followed by another drop in five Waves below the February low.
More about ORCL, Salesforce, and Intuit in the Pro newsletter.
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What’s Next for the Stock Market?
I cannot say I am surprised by the market choppiness, as I expected it along with the pullback.
There is some intense rotation in the market; while the S&P 500 has not changed in a month, there were significant moves in individual stocks, both up and down.
Individual stocks moved on average by over 10%.
Although this rotation may continue, such a dispersion and low correlation often happen near market tops. . .
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