Market is Not Far From Targets

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NVDA - Price

• The chart below shows NVDA price target of 140+/-5.5, approximately, for the 20-weak (20W) cycle. Essentially, targeting a double top +/-.

• This is the highest available target, and it is already minimally satisfied, but NVDA is “allowed” to move higher toward the upper range of the target region.

• Sometimes, “hot” stocks may even exceed the target.

NVDA - Time

• The chart below shows the 20W cycle in time, which dominates the daily chart and has a period of 81 trading days (TDs).

• Just as the price target allows for higher, so the cycle peak allows for more upside bias in the next 1-2 weeks.

• In our cycle analysis, we tend to look for reversals when the “price meets time,” i.e., when the price target for a cycle is achieved coincidentally with the estimated cycle turning point.

• The chart below shows the cycle composite when we add the three next strongest cycles detected for the daily NVDA chart.

• We can see that turning points in time do not change noticeably. This is because the 20W cycle dominates.

• Since NVDA is highly correlated with SOX (Semiconductor Index), we can expect a reversal in SOX and SMH at about the same time.

• As I mentioned before, SOX, a previous market leader, will likely also impact NDX and SPX.

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Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

• My Post from yesterday is below.

  • SPX is exhibiting multiple wedges, i.e., wedges within wedges from short-term to very long-term.

  • Rising wedges, when broken downwards, are bearish in character. When the down-trendline of a rising wedge is broken, it signals a trend reversal from up to down.

  • Similarly, for falling edges, when the upper trendline is broken to the upside, it signals a trend reversal from down to up.

  • Of special interest in my X post below is the orange 25-year-long wedge.

  • Right now, SPX is “flirting” with its upper trendline connecting the 2000 and 2022 SPX peaks. This trendline now represents resistance, and SPX is slightly poking above it.

  • The lower trendline is some 30% lower and may eventually provide support in a bear market. 

  • However, if the lower trendline is broken, watch out below. Such an event will signal a decade-long bear market.

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