- Market Twists & Turns
- Posts
- Market Bounced Despite New Tariffs
Market Bounced Despite New Tariffs
How Will Market React to a Possible Government Shutdown?
BraVoCycles Newsletter
September 28, 2025
Hey Market Timer!
Stop Missing Out on Market Opportunities
Get 95% Off Your First 3 Months of Market Twists & Turns Pro!
Unlock exclusive insights and expert analysis to maximize your investment returns. For a limited time, get 95% off for your first 3 months and see how our premium content can help you profit in any market.
*Please be advised that this subscription will automatically renew. This subscription renews at the full price after the end of the promotion period. Cancellation is the responsibility of the subscriber.
Today we will be covering...
Today, we will examine the details of a 4-year Bitcoin cycle.
President Trump announced new tariffs effective 1 October.
The question is whether this is it, or more tariffs will be coming?
There is about an 80% chance of a government shutdown at the end of the fiscal year.
Bitcoin – 4-Year Cycle Geometry
I thought it was a good time to update my 4-year cycle analysis for BTC. Here it is.
In the previous two 4-year cycles, the troughs occurred 118- and 130-weeks (blue labels) post-halving, respectively. Halving times correspond to the vertical red lines.
In this cycle, the trough is expected 133 weeks after the last halving on 4/19/2024.
In the previous two 4-year cycles, the BTC price peaks landed 18 weeks after the peak of idealized cycles represented by the semicircles.
That is, the real cycle is tilted about 17.5% relative to the idealized one.
If this relationship continues, the expected price peak is in mid-October, as depicted by the red oval that allows for a few weeks of tolerance. The tolerance allows for the peak to have already occurred in August or for it to still be ahead of us within a month or so.
We will dive into more short- and intermediate-term details in the Pro newsletter.
BraVoCycles on X
If you are interested in financial markets, you are missing out by not following me on X, as I do not have enough space in the newsletter to post all my research, which I try to share on X. Additionally, I frequently post important real-time updates between newsletters. Follow @BraVoCycles.
In addition to extreme overvaluation that we covered before, the stock market exhibits extreme concentration into a relatively small number of stocks, mostly mega-caps.
This is not a short-term sell signal, but it highlights a dangerous state of the stock market.
Real Estate 18-year cycle is “scheduled” to peak in late 2025 or early 2026.
Someone calculated (I have not verified) and posted on X that the median yearly salary would need to be $28K higher to make home buying affordable.
To continue reading about what’s next for the stock market, US Markets, Elliott Wave and Technical analysis of US Markets, volatility, as well as commodities, bonds, forex, currencies and crypto, claim your 95% off for 3 months introductory rate and upgrade to Premium Pro. . .
These Are The Rolls-Royce Of Hearing Aids (And Under $100)
Shoppers are going nuts over these low cost hearing aids that are virtually invisible. Discover how these affordable hearing aids are changing the lives of people everyday.
Subscribe to the Pro Tier to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of Market Twists & Turns - Pro to get access to the rest of this post and other subscriber-only content.
Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.
A subscription gets you:
- • In-depth analysis & analysis multiple times/week on SPX, NDX, DJI, RUT, VIX/VXX, plus
- • Bonds, commodities, forex, international markets, select stocks, & EFTs
- • Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis (EWA)
- • Price projections using Cycle methods and Fibonacci levels
- • Ad-free & downloadable pdf version
Reply