Long-Term Market Prospects

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Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) Technical Analysis

• Although DJI may have another wiggle or two on the upside, the long-term (LT) technical indicators warn about a prolonged correction ahead.

• The monthly DJI chart shows a significant loss of momentum as represented by negative divergence in RSI; note divergence corresponding to the peaks marked by red ovals.

• The powerful 3.5-year cycle is about to roll over within weeks.

• DJI is flirting with upper trendlines of gray and orange wedges.

• The gray wedge is of medium-term (MT) significance – If/when the lower trendline is broken, it will signal a correction, or if you prefer a bear market lasting 1-2 years.

• The orange wedge has a multi-decade significance - – If/when the lower trendline is broken, it will signal a bear market lasting 1-2 decades.

DJI Elliott Wave Count

• DJI is likely completing an expanding diagonal, depicted by blue dashed lines, which should be interpreted as a terminal wave structure for wave 5.

• This will complete five waves up from Oct’22.

• It will also complete five waves up since the 2009 low.

• After five waves up, there are at least three waves down – Given five waves up from 2009, it will be appropriate to have a multi-year correction.

• Alternatively, it could be a larger ending diagonal completing orange ((iii)) with another down-up sequence to come, corresponding to waves ((iv)) and ((v)).

• In the short term, an overthrow over the blue dashed line and a visit to the gray trendline is possible.

*Note that long-term technical indicators and Elliott wave counts are not immediate sell signals. We follow short-term developments in the premium newsletter.

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Follow BraVoCycles on X

• Consider following me on X (former Twitter) in addition to the newsletter, as I often post valuable information there in real time between the newsletters.

• For example, a few days ago, I posted an updated version of the Buffett Indicator, the Total US Market Capitalization divided by the GDP.

  • The upper window shows the ratio, while the lower window shows the de-trended ratio.

  • Both indicators signify an extreme over-valuation of the US stock market.

  • Extreme values of this indicator preceded the most significant bear markets in the past 50-60 years.

  • Given the value of this indicator, it is not surprising that Warren Buffett was selling stocks last several months.

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